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Intercity vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Intercity
Intercity
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Algeciras
Algeciras
9/22/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Intercity40%
×Draw27%
Algeciras32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intercity
1.29
Algeciras
1.13

Intercity creates 14% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Intercity
1.18
Algeciras
1.05

allows per match

Intercity
1.21
Algeciras
1.41

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par
Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Algeciras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Intercity or draw
68%
Intercity or Algeciras
73%
Draw or Algeciras
60%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+
18%
Algeciras wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals
72%
Intercity 2+ goals
37%
Intercity 3+ goals
14%
Algeciras 1+ goals
68%
Algeciras 2+ goals
31%
Algeciras 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)
55%
Algeciras (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.18 + Algeciras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Algeciras attack 1.05 + Intercity defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Intercity scores more
40%
level
27%
Algeciras scores more
32%

Intercity at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Intercity 0–1 Algeciras

Algeciras beat Intercity 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana in Alicante.