Inter Zapresic 1–2 Orijent 1919: Result & Stats

Inter Zapresic

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Orijent 1919

S. Goričan 35'

L. Maružin 62'

V. Gerc 48'

9/16/2020

First NL · Round 5Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Zapresic46%

×Draw26%

Orijent 191928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ZapresicExpected goals in this matchOrijent 1919

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.08

Inter Zapresic

1.48

Orijent 1919

1.08

Inter Zapresic creates 37% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 109 away

1.41

creates per match

1.32

0.84

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Inter Zapresic

1.41

Orijent 1919

1.32

allows per match

Inter Zapresic

0.84

Orijent 1919

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

Orijent 1919 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw

72%

Inter Zapresic or Orijent 1919

74%

Draw or Orijent 1919

54%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

23%

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

77%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

43%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

19%

Orijent 1919 1+ goals

66%

Orijent 1919 2+ goals

29%

Orijent 1919 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

63%

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

Orijent 1919 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.41 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Orijent 1919 attack 1.32 + Inter Zapresic defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more

46%

level

26%

Orijent 1919 scores more

28%

Inter Zapresic at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

35'

46'

48'

58'

62'

65'

F. Jovičević← I. Abramović

70'

R. Brdar← V. Gerc

73'

M. Uzelac← D. Grgić

80'

M. Benčić← S. Goričan

90+2'

B. Ivančević← M. Monjac

Inter

Orijent

45

28

25

4

15

19

7

8

⚽

▼

Gerc

16

▼

Monjac

26

▼

Črnko

11

Flego

35

Matković

4

▼

18

6

28

8

▼

Dunić

22

▼

Abramović

11

Mamut

9

Šroler

17

⚽

▼

Goričan

21

Vranjkovi

Manager: T. Ivković

46'▲N. Soldo←▼M. Dunić

65'▲F. Jovičević←▼I. Abramović

73'▲M. Uzelac←▼D. Grgić

80'▲M. Benčić←▼S. Goričan

Inter Zapresic substitutes

14Soldo29Jovičević25Uzelac7Benčić12Križanović16Magdić20Uzelac

Manager: D. Milinović

58'▲L. Maružin←▼E. Črnko

70'▲R. Brdar←▼V. Gerc

90+2'▲B. Ivančević←▼M. Monjac

Orijent 1919 substitutes

20Maružin27Brdar23Ivančević3Senčar10Fumić18Milinović1Boglić21Šantek22Petrović

First NL: Inter Zapresic 1–2 Orijent 1919

Orijent 1919 beat Inter Zapresic 2-1 in First NL on September 16, 2020.

Goals: S. Goričan (35'), V. Gerc (48'), L. Maružin (62').

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.

Inter Zapresic vs Orijent 1919 — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: Inter Zapresic 1–2 Orijent 1919