Inter Zapresic 0–2 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

Inter Zapresic

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

HNK Gorica

9/29/2019

HNL · Round 10Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Inter Zapresic31%

×Draw25%

HNK Gorica44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ZapresicExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.55

Inter Zapresic

1.25

HNK Gorica

1.55

HNK Gorica creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

1.08

creates per match

1.08

2.03

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Inter Zapresic

1.08

HNK Gorica

1.08

allows per match

Inter Zapresic

2.03

HNK Gorica

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw

56%

Inter Zapresic or HNK Gorica

75%

Draw or HNK Gorica

69%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

13%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

71%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

36%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

13%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

79%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

46%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

41%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.08 + HNK Gorica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

HNK Gorica attack 1.08 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more

31%

level

25%

HNK Gorica scores more

44%

HNK Gorica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff