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Inter vs Torino — Serie A 2018

Inter
Inter
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Torino
Torino
A. Bonny 72'
M. Thuram 62', 36'
L. Martinez 52'
A. Bastoni 18'
8/25/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 1Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Inter57%
×Draw23%
Torino20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.76
Torino
0.92

Inter creates 91% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Inter
2.18
Torino
1.06

allows per match

Inter
0.78
Torino
1.34

finishing

Inter+0.30scores more
Torino+0.02on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Torino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter or draw
80%
Inter or Torino
77%
Draw or Torino
43%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
32%
Torino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
83%
Inter 2+ goals
52%
Inter 3+ goals
26%
Torino 1+ goals
60%
Torino 2+ goals
23%
Torino 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
75%
Torino (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.78 · 25 matches

Torino away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.18 + Torino defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.76

Torino attack 1.06 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Inter scores more
57%
level
23%
Torino scores more
20%

Inter at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Bastoni↳ N. Barella
36'
M. Thuram↳ P. Sucic
52'
L. Martinez
58'
Z. Aboukhlal← N. Vlasic
58'
A. Tameze← E. Ilkhan
62'
M. Thuram↳ A. Bastoni
64'
C. Adams← G. Simeone
66'
Carlos Augusto← F. Dimarco
67'
A. Bonny← M. Thuram
72'
A. Bonny↳ L. Martinez
79'
P. Zielinski← H. Mkhitaryan
79'
A. Diouf← L. Martinez
79'
F. Anjorin← V. Lazaro
80'
M. Pedersen← C. Ngonge
86'
Luis Henrique← A. Bastoni

Possession

60%Inter

Shots

20Inter

Pass accuracy

51%Inter

Statistics

InterTorino
Overview
60%Possession40%
20Total Shots12
1.59Expected Goals (xG)0.94
6Corners5
14Fouls6
Shots
20Total Shots12
9On Target4
8Off Target3
3Blocked5
14Inside Box8
6Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
577Total Passes379
530Accurate Passes328
92%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
-2.34Goals Prevented-2.34
Discipline
14Fouls6
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Inter vs Torino

Inter beat Torino 5-0 in Serie A on August 25, 2025.

Goals: A. Bastoni (18'), M. Thuram (36', 62'), L. Martinez (52'), A. Bonny (72').

Inter controlled possession (60%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.