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Inter vs Torino — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torino
Torino
M. Brozović 89'
9/10/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 6Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Inter57%
×Draw23%
Torino19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.75
Torino
0.91

Inter creates 92% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Inter
2.18
Torino
1.03

allows per match

Inter
0.78
Torino
1.31

finishing

Inter+0.30scores more
Torino-0.03on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Torino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter or draw
81%
Inter or Torino
77%
Draw or Torino
43%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
32%
Torino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
83%
Inter 2+ goals
52%
Inter 3+ goals
25%
Torino 1+ goals
60%
Torino 2+ goals
23%
Torino 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
75%
Torino (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.78 · 25 matches

Torino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.18 + Torino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.75

Torino attack 1.03 + Inter defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Inter scores more
57%
level
23%
Torino scores more
19%

Inter at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
S. HandanovičInterInter · G
9.0

Match Events

51'
Antonio Sanabria
51'
Antonio SanabriaRed card cancelled
55'
Marcelo Brozović
68'
Saša Lukić
68'
J. Correa← E. Džeko
68'
A. Bastoni← D. Dumfries
68'
E. İlkhan← K. Linetty
69'
N. Radonjić← D. Seck
76'
R. Bellanova← F. Dimarco
77'
H. Mkhitaryan← H. Çalhanoğlu
77'
D. Zima← R. Rodríguez
85'
R. Gosens← M. Darmian
89'
M. Brozović↳ N. Barella
90'
P. Pellegri← A. Sanabria
90'
W. Singo← V. Lazaro

Possession

57%Inter

Shots

16Inter

Pass accuracy

52%Inter

Statistics

InterTorino
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots9
6Corners5
8Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots9
3On Target7
7Off Target0
6Blocked2
7Inside Box6
9Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
493Total Passes374
417Accurate Passes290
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Inter vs Torino

Inter beat Torino 1-0 in Serie A on September 10, 2022.

Goals: M. Brozović (89').

Inter controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.