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Inter vs Spezia — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
J. Correa 82'
H. Çalhanoğlu 52'
Lautaro Martínez 35'
8/20/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 2Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Inter64%
×Draw20%
Spezia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
2.07
Spezia
0.93

Inter creates 123% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 57 away

creates per match

Inter
2.18
Spezia
1.00

allows per match

Inter
0.85
Spezia
1.96

finishing

Inter+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Inter or draw
84%
Inter or Spezia
80%
Draw or Spezia
36%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
39%
Spezia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
87%
Inter 2+ goals
61%
Inter 3+ goals
34%
Spezia 1+ goals
61%
Spezia 2+ goals
24%
Spezia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
80%
Spezia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.85 · 136 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.96 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.18 + Spezia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.07

Spezia attack 1.00 + Inter defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Inter scores more
64%
level
20%
Spezia scores more
16%

Inter at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

95
A. BastoniInterInter · D
8.2

Match Events

35'
Lautaro Martínez↳ R. Lukaku
52'
H. Çalhanoğlu
67'
P. Hristov← M. Caldara
67'
D. Strelec← J. Sala
68'
R. Gosens← F. Dimarco
68'
E. Džeko← R. Lukaku
75'
J. Correa← Lautaro Martínez
75'
R. Gagliardini← H. Çalhanoğlu
79'
V. Kovalenko← S. Bastoni
82'
J. Correa↳ E. Džeko
85'
K. Asllani← M. Brozović
90'
M. Ellertsson← K. Agudelo
90'
E. Holm← E. Gyasi

Possession

55%Inter

Shots

19Inter

Pass accuracy

51%Inter

Statistics

InterSpezia
Overview
55%Possession45%
19Total Shots2
10Corners4
11Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots2
8On Target0
8Off Target1
3Blocked1
14Inside Box2
5Outside Box0
Passing
55%Possession45%
503Total Passes420
446Accurate Passes355
89%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls7
5Offsides1

Serie A: Inter 3–0 Spezia

Inter beat Spezia 3-0 in Serie A on August 20, 2022.

Goals: Lautaro Martínez (35'), H. Çalhanoğlu (52'), J. Correa (82').

Inter controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 2.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.