Inter 3–1 Sheriff Tiraspol: Result & Stats

Inter

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

S. de Vrij 67'

A. Vidal 58'

E. Džeko 34'

S. Thill 52'

10/19/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 3Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter36%

×Draw29%

Sheriff Tiraspol35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.09

Inter

1.12

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

1.32

creates per match

1.15

1.04

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Inter

1.32

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.15

allows per match

Inter

1.04

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Inter or draw

65%

Inter or Sheriff Tiraspol

71%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

64%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

15%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

67%

Inter 2+ goals

31%

Inter 3+ goals

10%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

66%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

30%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

51%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 1.32 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.12

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.15 + Inter defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Inter scores more

36%

level

29%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

35%

Inter at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Barella

Inter · M

8.3

Match Events

34'

E. Džeko↳ A. Vidal

46'

S. Radeljić← F. Castañeda

51'

Federico Dimarco

52'

S. Thill

53'

A. Bastoni← F. Dimarco

58'

A. Vidal↳ E. Džeko

67'

S. de Vrij↳ D. Dumfries

75'

R. Gagliardini← A. Vidal

75'

A. Sánchez← E. Džeko

75'

B. Nikolov← E. Addo

84'

M. Cojocaru← D. Kolovos

85'

S. Sensi← M. Brozović

85'

A. Kolarov← I. Perišić

88'

Maxim Cojocaru

90'

S. Cojocari← A. Traoré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterSheriff

Overview

70%Possession30%

29Total Shots8

13Corners4

9Fouls6

Shots

29Total Shots8

8On Target3

14Off Target1

7Blocked4

20Inside Box2

9Outside Box6

Passing

70%Possession30%

656Total Passes280

579Accurate Passes211

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1