Inter 0–2 Real Madrid: Result & Stats

Inter

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Madrid

11/25/2020

UEFA Champions League · Group B - 4Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Inter49%

×Draw22%

Real Madrid29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.50

Inter

1.98

Real Madrid

1.50

Inter creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.06

creates per match

1.92

1.07

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Inter

2.06

Real Madrid

1.92

allows per match

Inter

1.07

Real Madrid

1.91

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

Inter-0.50scores less

Real Madrid+0.52scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Real Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Inter or draw

71%

Inter or Real Madrid

78%

Draw or Real Madrid

51%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

28%

Real Madrid wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

86%

Inter 2+ goals

59%

Inter 3+ goals

31%

Real Madrid 1+ goals

78%

Real Madrid 2+ goals

44%

Real Madrid 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

62%

Real Madrid (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Real Madrid away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.91 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.06 + Real Madrid defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.98

Real Madrid attack 1.92 + Inter defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter scores more

49%

level

22%

Real Madrid scores more

29%

Inter at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff