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Inter vs Lyon — International Champions Cup 2018

Inter
Inter
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lyon
Lyon
7/24/2017International Champions CupInternational Champions Cup · China PR - 1Nanjing Olympic Sports Center (Nanjing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inter34%
×Draw30%
Lyon36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.00
Lyon
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Inter
1.00
Lyon
0.75

allows per match

Inter
1.33
Lyon
1.00

finishing

Inter+0.00on par
Lyon+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Lyon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Inter or draw
64%
Inter or Lyon
70%
Draw or Lyon
66%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
13%
Lyon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
63%
Inter 2+ goals
26%
Inter 3+ goals
8%
Lyon 1+ goals
65%
Lyon 2+ goals
28%
Lyon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
49%
Lyon (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Lyon away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 1.00 + Lyon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lyon attack 0.75 + Inter defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Inter scores more
34%
level
30%
Lyon scores more
36%

Lyon at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter vs Lyon

Inter beat Lyon 1-0 in International Champions Cup on July 24, 2017.

The match was played at Nanjing Olympic Sports Center (Nanjing).