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Inter vs Ludogorets — UEFA Europa League 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
2/27/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 16th FinalsStadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Inter68%
×Draw19%
Ludogorets14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
2.23
Ludogorets
0.89

Inter creates 151% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

creates per match

Inter
2.50
Ludogorets
1.27

allows per match

Inter
0.50
Ludogorets
1.96

finishing

Inter+0.00on par
Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Inter or draw
86%
Inter or Ludogorets
81%
Draw or Ludogorets
32%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
44%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
89%
Inter 2+ goals
65%
Inter 3+ goals
38%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
59%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
22%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
83%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.50 + Ludogorets defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.23

Ludogorets attack 1.27 + Inter defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Inter scores more
68%
level
19%
Ludogorets scores more
14%

Inter at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter vs Ludogorets

Inter beat Ludogorets 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on February 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.