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Inter vs FC Porto — UEFA Champions League 2026

Inter
Interadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Porto
FC Porto
R. Lukaku 86'
2/22/2023UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Round of 16Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter33%
×Draw28%
FC Porto39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.14
FC Porto
1.27

FC Porto creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Inter
1.33
FC Porto
1.50

allows per match

Inter
1.04
FC Porto
0.94

finishing

Inter+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Inter or draw
61%
Inter or FC Porto
72%
Draw or FC Porto
67%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
13%
FC Porto wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
68%
Inter 2+ goals
32%
Inter 3+ goals
11%
FC Porto 1+ goals
72%
FC Porto 2+ goals
36%
FC Porto 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
46%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

FC Porto away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 1.33 + FC Porto defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

FC Porto attack 1.50 + Inter defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inter scores more
33%
level
28%
FC Porto scores more
39%

FC Porto at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
A. OnanaInterInter · G
7.9

Match Events

41'
Federico Dimarco
41'
Otávio
51'
Evanilson← Galeno
58'
R. Gosens← F. Dimarco
58'
R. Lukaku← E. Džeko
63'
Pepê
72'
M. Brozović← H. Mkhitaryan
78'
Otávio
78'
Otávio
81'
D. Dumfries← M. Škriniar
83'
Wendell← M. Taremi
86'
R. Lukaku
90+2'
Gonçalo Borges← João Mário

Possession

60%Inter

Shots

18Inter

Pass accuracy

52%Inter

Statistics

InterFC
Overview
60%Possession40%
18Total Shots10
1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.65
6Corners0
15Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots10
4On Target4
9Off Target4
5Blocked2
13Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
495Total Passes357
415Accurate Passes278
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
0Offsides1

UEFA Champions League: Inter 1–0 FC Porto

Inter beat FC Porto 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on February 22, 2023.

Goals: R. Lukaku (86').

Inter controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.