Inter 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt: Result & Stats

Inter

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Eintracht Frankfurt

L. Jović 5'

3/14/2019

UEFA Europa League · 8th FinalsSan Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Inter51%

×Draw23%

Eintracht Frankfurt26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchEintracht Frankfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.19

Inter

1.78

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.19

Inter creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

2.50

creates per match

1.88

0.50

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Inter

2.50

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.88

allows per match

Inter

0.50

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Inter or draw

74%

Inter or Eintracht Frankfurt

77%

Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt

49%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

28%

Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

83%

Inter 2+ goals

53%

Inter 3+ goals

26%

Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals

70%

Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals

33%

Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

67%

Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.50 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.78

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.88 + Inter defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Inter scores more

51%

level

23%

Eintracht Frankfurt scores more

26%

Inter at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Handanovič

Inter · G

8.1

Match Events

5'

20'

52'

57'

59'

J. de Guzmán← M. Gaćinović

62'

A. Ranocchia← Cédric Soares

63'

Sebastian Rode

73'

S. Esposito← Borja Valero

73'

M. Stendera← J. Willems

80'

D. Merola← M. Politano

89'

Gonçalo Paciência← S. Rode

90'

Milan Škriniar

90'

Gonçalo Paciência

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterEintracht

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots18

7Corners5

15Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots18

4On Target8

6Off Target6

2Blocked4

3Inside Box11

9Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

412Total Passes359

315Accurate Passes264

76%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3