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Inter vs Brescia — Serie A 2018

Inter
Inter
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
A. Candreva 88'
C. Eriksen 83'
R. Gagliardini 52'
D. D'Ambrosio 45'
A. Sanchez 20' (pen)
A. Young 5'
7/1/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 29Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Inter70%
×Draw18%
Brescia12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
2.24
Brescia
0.80

Inter creates 180% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 20 away

creates per match

Inter
2.18
Brescia
0.75

allows per match

Inter
0.85
Brescia
2.30

finishing

Inter+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Inter or draw
88%
Inter or Brescia
82%
Draw or Brescia
30%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
46%
Brescia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
89%
Inter 2+ goals
65%
Inter 3+ goals
38%
Brescia 1+ goals
55%
Brescia 2+ goals
19%
Brescia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
85%
Brescia (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.85 · 136 matches

Brescia away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.18 + Brescia defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.24

Brescia attack 0.75 + Inter defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Inter scores more
70%
level
18%
Brescia scores more
12%

Inter at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Alexis SánchezInterInter · F
9.3

Match Events

5'
A. Young↳ A. Sanchez
19'
A. Mateju
20'
A. SanchezPenalty
41'
S. de Vrij
45'
D. D'Ambrosio↳ A. Young
46'
S. de Vrij← A. Ranocchia
46'
A. Donnarumma← E. Torregrossa
46'
S. Skrabb← B. Bjarnason
52'
R. Gagliardini↳ A. Sanchez
58'
S. Sabelli← M. Mangraviti
59'
J. Zmrhal← N. Spalek
59'
N. Barella← L. Agoume
62'
A. Semprini
64'
L. Agoume
67'
V. Moses← A. Candreva
68'
L. Martinez← R. Lukaku
68'
R. Gagliardini← C. Eriksen
82'
D. Dessena← A. Ghezzi
83'
C. Eriksen
88'
A. Candreva↳ C. Eriksen

Possession

61%Inter

Shots

21Inter

Pass accuracy

53%Inter

Statistics

InterBrescia
Overview
61%Possession39%
21Total Shots8
4Corners4
13Fouls10
Shots
21Total Shots8
9On Target1
11Off Target3
1Blocked4
19Inside Box4
2Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
545Total Passes342
480Accurate Passes266
88%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Inter vs Brescia

Inter beat Brescia 6-0 in Serie A on July 1, 2020.

Goals: A. Young (5'), A. Sanchez (20' pen), D. D'Ambrosio (45'), R. Gagliardini (52'), C. Eriksen (83'), A. Candreva (88').

Inter controlled possession (61%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.