Inter 2–0 Borussia Dortmund: Result & Stats

Inter

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Borussia Dortmund

10/23/2019

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 3Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Inter58%

×Draw22%

Borussia Dortmund21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.10

Inter

1.99

Borussia Dortmund

1.10

Inter creates 81% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.06

creates per match

1.14

1.07

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Inter

2.06

Borussia Dortmund

1.14

allows per match

Inter

1.07

Borussia Dortmund

1.92

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.86scores more than expected

finishing

Inter-0.50scores less

Borussia Dortmund+0.86scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Borussia Dortmund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Inter or draw

79%

Inter or Borussia Dortmund

78%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund

42%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

34%

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

86%

Inter 2+ goals

59%

Inter 3+ goals

32%

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

67%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

30%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

74%

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.92 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.06 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.99

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.14 + Inter defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inter scores more

58%

level

22%

Borussia Dortmund scores more

21%

Inter at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff