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Inter vs Bayer Leverkusen — UEFA Europa League 2026

Inter
Interadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
8/10/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Quarter-finalsMerkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Inter52%
×Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.98
Bayer Leverkusen
1.34

Inter creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Inter
2.50
Bayer Leverkusen
2.18

allows per match

Inter
0.50
Bayer Leverkusen
1.47

finishing

Inter+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Bayer Leverkusen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Inter or draw
74%
Inter or Bayer Leverkusen
78%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen
48%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
30%
Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
86%
Inter 2+ goals
59%
Inter 3+ goals
31%
Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals
74%
Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals
39%
Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
67%
Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Bayer Leverkusen away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.50 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.98

Bayer Leverkusen attack 2.18 + Inter defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter scores more
52%
level
22%
Bayer Leverkusen scores more
26%

Inter at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter vs Bayer Leverkusen

Inter beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on August 10, 2020.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.