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Inter Turku vs Turku PS — Suomen Cup 2018

Inter Turku
Inter Turkuadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Turku PS
Turku PS
7/3/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Quarter-finalsVeritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Inter Turku57%
×Draw21%
Turku PS22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
2.17
Turku PS
1.30

Inter Turku creates 67% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
3.17
Turku PS
2.00

allows per match

Inter Turku
0.61
Turku PS
1.18

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
78%
Inter Turku or Turku PS
79%
Draw or Turku PS
43%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
35%
Turku PS wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
89%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
64%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
36%
Turku PS 1+ goals
73%
Turku PS 2+ goals
37%
Turku PS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
72%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Turku PS away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 3.17 + Turku PS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.17

Turku PS attack 2.00 + Inter Turku defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Inter Turku scores more
57%
level
21%
Turku PS scores more
22%

Inter Turku at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Turku vs Turku PS

Inter Turku beat Turku PS 3-2 in Suomen Cup on July 3, 2024.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.