Inter Turku 2–0 Honka: Result & Stats

Inter Turku

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Honka

T. Jyry 53'

M. Ojala 22'

6/3/2023

Veikkausliiga · Round 9Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Inter Turku42%

×Draw26%

Honka31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter TurkuExpected goals in this matchHonka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

Inter Turku

1.40

Honka

1.17

Inter Turku creates 20% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 82 away

1.66

creates per match

1.29

1.04

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Inter Turku

1.66

Honka

1.29

allows per match

Inter Turku

1.04

Honka

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par

Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

Honka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw

69%

Inter Turku or Honka

74%

Draw or Honka

58%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+

20%

Honka wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals

75%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

41%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

17%

Honka 1+ goals

69%

Honka 2+ goals

33%

Honka 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

57%

Honka (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.04 · 119 matches

Honka away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 1.66 + Honka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Honka attack 1.29 + Inter Turku defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Turku scores more

42%

level

26%

Honka scores more

31%

Inter Turku at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

43'

44'

53'

58'

L. Laine← E. Arko-Mensah

58'

K. Jansen← M. Ortíz

58'

Lucas Kaufmann← Clésio

60'

Elias Äijälä

61'

I. Järvinen← M. Ojala

65'

Christian Ouguehi Legbo

67'

Petteri Forsell

71'

M. Tamminen← P. Forsell

71'

J. Niska← D. Legbo

81'

Juan Alegria

82'

N. Nurmi← B. Ampofo

82'

T. Stavitski← D. Smith

83'

Kevin Jansen

84'

N. Saarikivi← R. Eremenko

84'

D. Naamo← M. Rale

90+1'

Mikael Almén

Possession

Shots

Statistics

InterHonka

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots11

4Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots11

9On Target7

1Off Target4

1Blocked0

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

7Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1