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Inter Turku vs Başakşehir — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
Preview
16:00
Başakşehir
Başakşehir
7/30/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundVeritas Stadion
37%
Inter Turku
model favours
37%28%36%

Inter Turku are unbeaten in 20 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inter Turku37%
×Draw28%
Başakşehir36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
1.20
Başakşehir
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
1.33
Başakşehir
1.69

allows per match

Inter Turku
0.67
Başakşehir
1.06

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par
Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

Başakşehir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
64%
Inter Turku or Başakşehir
72%
Draw or Başakşehir
63%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
16%
Başakşehir wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
70%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
34%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
12%
Başakşehir 1+ goals
69%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
33%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
51%
Başakşehir (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 1.33 + Başakşehir defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Başakşehir attack 1.69 + Inter Turku defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Inter Turku scores more
37%
level
28%
Başakşehir scores more
36%

Inter Turku at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Başakşehir’s matches
  • Both teams score in 76% of Inter Turku’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (62% and 60% over 2.5)
  • Inter Turku matches are rarely goalless — only 3.4% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Turku
DDWDW
Başakşehir
DWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Turku vs Başakşehir — Match Preview

Inter Turku face Başakşehir on July 30, 2026 in this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Inter Turku host Başakşehir at Veritas Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.