Başakşehir 1–1 Inter Turku: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Turku

E. Bayram 54'

C. Jephta 16'

7/22/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundBasaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Başakşehir67%

×Draw21%

Inter Turku13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchInter Turku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.72

Başakşehir

1.97

Inter Turku

0.72

Başakşehir creates 174% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

2.18

creates per match

0.50

0.94

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.18

Inter Turku

0.50

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.94

Inter Turku

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Inter Turku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

87%

Başakşehir or Inter Turku

79%

Draw or Inter Turku

33%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

41%

Inter Turku wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

86%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

58%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

31%

Inter Turku 1+ goals

51%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

16%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

84%

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.18 + Inter Turku defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.97

Inter Turku attack 0.50 + Başakşehir defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Başakşehir scores more

67%

level

21%

Inter Turku scores more

13%

Başakşehir at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Emin Bayram

Başakşehir · D

8.6

Match Events

16'

C. Jephta↳ J. Tuominen

46'

O. Ba

54'

E. Bayram↳ Y. Sari

61'

A. Fayzullaev← I. Brnic

61'

J. Opoku← O. Ba

64'

P. Ahiabu← L. Essomba

69'

D. Selke← B. Yildirim

69'

N. Da Costa← E. Shomurodov

75'

J. Tuominen

77'

J. Botue← A. Conteh

77'

J. Tauriainen← J. Tuominen

82'

B. Ozdemir← U. Gunes

89'

I. Jarvinen← B. Ampofo

90+2'

J. Laine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaşakşehirInter

Overview

68%Possession32%

25Total Shots13

8Corners1

13Fouls9

Shots

25Total Shots13

9On Target5

10Off Target5

6Blocked3

19Inside Box11

6Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

551Total Passes272

500Accurate Passes211

91%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides5