Inter Turku II 1–0 VG-62: Result & Stats

Inter Turku II

1 – 0

VG-62

2/18/2022

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundTurku Energia Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Inter Turku II20%

×Draw19%

VG-6261%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Turku IIExpected goals in this matchVG-62

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.33

Inter Turku II

1.27

VG-62

2.33

VG-62 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

3.25

1.40

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Inter Turku II

1.80

VG-62

3.25

allows per match

Inter Turku II

1.40

VG-62

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Turku II+0.00on par

VG-62+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku II ↓

VG-62 →

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Inter Turku II or draw

39%

Inter Turku II or VG-62

81%

Draw or VG-62

80%

Winning margin

Inter Turku II wins by 2+

VG-62 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Inter Turku II 1+ goals

72%

Inter Turku II 2+ goals

36%

Inter Turku II 3+ goals

14%

VG-62 1+ goals

90%

VG-62 2+ goals

67%

VG-62 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)

25%

VG-62 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

VG-62 away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku II attack 1.80 + VG-62 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

VG-62 attack 3.25 + Inter Turku II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Inter Turku II scores more

20%

level

19%

VG-62 scores more

61%

VG-62 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "VG-62 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff