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Inter Turku II vs SalPa — Ykkönen 2026

Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
Preview
14:00
SalPa
SalPa
7/18/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageVeritas Stadion
46%
Inter Turku II
model favours
46%23%31%

Both sides lean high-scoring (81% and 82% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Inter Turku II46%
×Draw23%
SalPa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku II
1.80
SalPa
1.43

Inter Turku II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Inter Turku II
2.05
SalPa
1.00

allows per match

Inter Turku II
1.86
SalPa
1.55

finishing

Inter Turku II+0.00on par
SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku II ↓

SalPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Inter Turku II or draw
69%
Inter Turku II or SalPa
77%
Draw or SalPa
54%

Winning margin

Inter Turku II wins by 2+
25%
SalPa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Inter Turku II 1+ goals
83%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
54%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
27%
SalPa 1+ goals
76%
SalPa 2+ goals
42%
SalPa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
60%
SalPa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku II at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

SalPa away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku II attack 2.05 + SalPa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.80

SalPa attack 1.00 + Inter Turku II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Inter Turku II scores more
46%
level
23%
SalPa scores more
31%

Inter Turku II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 82% of SalPa’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 81% of Inter Turku II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Inter Turku II’s matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of SalPa’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWLDD
SalPa
WDDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Turku II face SalPa (Ykkönen)

Ykkönen returns with Inter Turku II hosting SalPa. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Inter Turku II host SalPa at Veritas Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.