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Inter Sevilla vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla23%
×Draw25%
San Roque Lepe51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Sevilla
0.98
San Roque Lepe
1.58

San Roque Lepe creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

creates per match

Inter Sevilla
0.69
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Inter Sevilla
2.19
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw
49%
Inter Sevilla or San Roque Lepe
75%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
77%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
8%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
62%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
26%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
8%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
79%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
47%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
31%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.98

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more
23%
level
25%
San Roque Lepe scores more
51%

San Roque Lepe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Roque Lepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Sevilla 1 – 1 San Roque Lepe

Inter Sevilla and San Roque Lepe drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Gines.