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Inter Sevilla vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Nando 59'
Francisco Núñez 7'
2/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Complejo Deportivo Demetrio Pichel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla29%
×Draw25%
La Palma45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Sevilla
1.18
La Palma
1.53

La Palma creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 48 away

creates per match

Inter Sevilla
0.69
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Inter Sevilla
2.19
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw
55%
Inter Sevilla or La Palma
75%
Draw or La Palma
71%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
12%
La Palma wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
69%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
33%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
12%
La Palma 1+ goals
78%
La Palma 2+ goals
45%
La Palma 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
39%
La Palma (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.18

La Palma attack 0.88 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more
29%
level
25%
La Palma scores more
45%

La Palma at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "La Palma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Francisco Núñez
30'
Rafa Navarro← Manu Picón
46'
Diego Rosado← Manolo Suárez
46'
Cazorla← Carlos Rojas
59'
Nando
62'
Joselu← M. Araar
62'
Manu Cruzado← Ángel Luque
72'
David García← Manu Arcos
73'
Iván Martín← Dani Salas
84'
José Carlos Estévez← Nando
Inter
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Manolo Suárez
▼
Suárez
Pana
Pana
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Manu Picón
▼
Picón
Carlos Rojas
▼
Rojas
Moisés Aguilar
Aguilar
Ángel Luque
▼
Luque
Manu Arcos
▼
Arcos
Diego Vargas
Vargas
Josemi Domínguez
Domínguez
Francisco Núñez
⚽
Núñez
Roberto Barba
Barba
Gustavo Lozano
Lozano
Marco Antonio Roldán
Roldán
Paquito Morales
Morales
Baldo
Baldo
Jaime Almagro
Almagro
Dani Salas
▼
Salas
M. Araar
▼
Araar
Nando
⚽
▼
Nando
Diego Tristán
Manager: Diego Tristán
62'▲Joselu←▼M. Araar
73'▲Iván Martín←▼Dani Salas
84'▲José Carlos Estévez←▼Nando

Inter Sevilla substitutes

JoseluMartínEstévez
Dioni Arroyo
Manager: Dioni Arroyo
30'▲Rafa Navarro←▼Manu Picón
46'▲Diego Rosado←▼Manolo Suárez
46'▲Cazorla←▼Carlos Rojas
62'▲Manu Cruzado←▼Ángel Luque
72'▲David García←▼Manu Arcos

La Palma substitutes

NavarroRosadoCazorlaCruzadoGarcía

Match Recap: Inter Sevilla vs La Palma

Inter Sevilla beat La Palma 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 2, 2025.

Goals: Francisco Núñez (7'), Nando (59').

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Demetrio Pichel in Sevilla.