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Inter Sevilla vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Córdoba II
Córdoba II
3/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Complejo Deportivo Demetrio Pichel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla23%
×Draw24%
Córdoba II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Sevilla
1.02
Córdoba II
1.66

Córdoba II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

creates per match

Inter Sevilla
0.69
Córdoba II
1.13

allows per match

Inter Sevilla
2.19
Córdoba II
1.34

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par
Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

Córdoba II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw
48%
Inter Sevilla or Córdoba II
76%
Draw or Córdoba II
77%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
8%
Córdoba II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
64%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
27%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
8%
Córdoba II 1+ goals
81%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
49%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
31%
Córdoba II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more
23%
level
24%
Córdoba II scores more
52%

Córdoba II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Inter Sevilla 2–4 Córdoba II

Córdoba II beat Inter Sevilla 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Demetrio Pichel in Sevilla.