Inter Sevilla 0–2 Ciudad de Lucena: Result & Stats

Inter Sevilla

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ciudad de Lucena

12/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 16Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla18%

×Draw25%

Ciudad de Lucena57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter SevillaExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.63

Inter Sevilla

0.79

Ciudad de Lucena

1.63

Ciudad de Lucena creates 106% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

0.69

creates per match

1.06

2.19

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Inter Sevilla

0.69

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

Inter Sevilla

2.19

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw

43%

Inter Sevilla or Ciudad de Lucena

75%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

82%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals

55%

Inter Sevilla 2+ goals

19%

Inter Sevilla 3+ goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

80%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

48%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)

24%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more

18%

level

25%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

57%

Ciudad de Lucena at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Sevilla vs Ciudad de Lucena

Ciudad de Lucena beat Inter Sevilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Gines.

Inter Sevilla vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Inter Sevilla vs Ciudad de Lucena