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Inter Sevilla vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Ceuta II
Ceuta II
4/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Complejo Deportivo Demetrio Pichel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla26%
×Draw26%
Ceuta II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Sevilla
1.04
Ceuta II
1.50

Ceuta II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 82 away

creates per match

Inter Sevilla
0.69
Ceuta II
0.82

allows per match

Inter Sevilla
2.19
Ceuta II
1.40

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par
Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

Ceuta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw
52%
Inter Sevilla or Ceuta II
74%
Draw or Ceuta II
74%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
10%
Ceuta II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
65%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
28%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
9%
Ceuta II 1+ goals
78%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
44%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
35%
Ceuta II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more
26%
level
26%
Ceuta II scores more
48%

Ceuta II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Sevilla vs Ceuta II

Ceuta II beat Inter Sevilla 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 30, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Demetrio Pichel in Sevilla.