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Inter Sevilla vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
10/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 6Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla32%
×Draw25%
Atlético Espeleño43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Sevilla
1.29
Atlético Espeleño
1.55

Atlético Espeleño creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 49 away

creates per match

Inter Sevilla
0.69
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Inter Sevilla
2.19
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw
57%
Inter Sevilla or Atlético Espeleño
75%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
68%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
72%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
37%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
42%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more
32%
level
25%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
43%

Atlético Espeleño at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Sevilla 1 – 2 Atlético Espeleño

Atlético Espeleño beat Inter Sevilla 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Gines.