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Inter San Carlos vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Inter San Carlos
Inter San Carlosadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
4/28/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Inter San Carlos60%
×Draw24%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter San Carlos
1.71
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.77

Inter San Carlos creates 122% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 14 away

creates per match

Inter San Carlos
1.85
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.79

allows per match

Inter San Carlos
0.74
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.57

finishing

Inter San Carlos+0.00on par
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter San Carlos ↓

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Inter San Carlos or draw
83%
Inter San Carlos or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
76%
Draw or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
40%

Winning margin

Inter San Carlos wins by 2+
34%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Inter San Carlos 1+ goals
82%
Inter San Carlos 2+ goals
51%
Inter San Carlos 3+ goals
24%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
54%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
18%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Inter San Carlos (draw refunded)
78%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter San Carlos at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.74 · 39 matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter San Carlos attack 1.85 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 0.79 + Inter San Carlos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Inter San Carlos scores more
60%
level
24%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
17%

Inter San Carlos at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Inter San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Inter San Carlos 2–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Inter San Carlos beat Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on April 28, 2026.