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Inter San Carlos vs Escorpiones Belén — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Inter San Carlos
Inter San Carlosadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
5/4/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio de Pital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Inter San Carlos49%
×Draw24%
Escorpiones Belén27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter San Carlos
1.68
Escorpiones Belén
1.17

Inter San Carlos creates 44% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 87 away

creates per match

Inter San Carlos
1.85
Escorpiones Belén
1.60

allows per match

Inter San Carlos
0.74
Escorpiones Belén
1.51

finishing

Inter San Carlos+0.00on par
Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter San Carlos ↓

Escorpiones Belén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inter San Carlos or draw
73%
Inter San Carlos or Escorpiones Belén
76%
Draw or Escorpiones Belén
51%

Winning margin

Inter San Carlos wins by 2+
26%
Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Inter San Carlos 1+ goals
81%
Inter San Carlos 2+ goals
50%
Inter San Carlos 3+ goals
24%
Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
69%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
33%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter San Carlos (draw refunded)
65%
Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter San Carlos at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.74 · 39 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter San Carlos attack 1.85 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Inter San Carlos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter San Carlos scores more
49%
level
24%
Escorpiones Belén scores more
27%

Inter San Carlos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Inter San Carlos 1–0 Escorpiones Belén

Inter San Carlos beat Escorpiones Belén 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de Pital in Pital.