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Inter Nouakchott vs Police — Premier League 2020

Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Police
Police
11/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Inter Nouakchott34%
×Draw28%
Police38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Nouakchott
1.13
Police
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 49 away

creates per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.14
Police
1.10

allows per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.33
Police
1.12

finishing

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Nouakchott ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Nouakchott or draw
62%
Inter Nouakchott or Police
72%
Draw or Police
66%

Winning margin

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
14%
Police wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
68%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
31%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
11%
Police 1+ goals
70%
Police 2+ goals
34%
Police 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
47%
Police (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Nouakchott at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Police away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.12 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Nouakchott attack 1.14 + Police defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Police attack 1.10 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Inter Nouakchott scores more
34%
level
28%
Police scores more
38%

Police at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Nouakchott vs Police

Inter Nouakchott and Police drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 23, 2025.