Inter Nouakchott 1–2 Nouakchott King's

Inter Nouakchott

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nouakchott King's

11/3/2024

Premier League · Round 6Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Inter Nouakchott34%

×Draw27%

Nouakchott King's39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter NouakchottExpected goals in this matchNouakchott King's

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.28

Inter Nouakchott

1.19

Nouakchott King's

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 77 away

1.14

creates per match

1.23

1.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Inter Nouakchott

1.14

Nouakchott King's

1.23

allows per match

Inter Nouakchott

1.33

Nouakchott King's

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par

Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Nouakchott ↓

Nouakchott King's →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Inter Nouakchott or draw

61%

Inter Nouakchott or Nouakchott King's

73%

Draw or Nouakchott King's

66%

Winning margin

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+

14%

Nouakchott King's wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals

70%

Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals

33%

Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals

12%

Nouakchott King's 1+ goals

72%

Nouakchott King's 2+ goals

37%

Nouakchott King's 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)

47%

Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Nouakchott at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Nouakchott King's away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Nouakchott attack 1.14 + Nouakchott King's defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nouakchott King's attack 1.23 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inter Nouakchott scores more

34%

level

27%

Nouakchott King's scores more

39%

Nouakchott King's at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nouakchott King's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff