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Inter Nouakchott vs Ksar — Premier League 2020

Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ksar
Ksar
10/31/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Inter Nouakchott39%
×Draw28%
Ksar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Nouakchott
1.23
Ksar
1.09

Inter Nouakchott creates 13% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 78 away

creates per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.14
Ksar
0.86

allows per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.33
Ksar
1.33

finishing

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par
Ksar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Nouakchott ↓

Ksar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Nouakchott or draw
68%
Inter Nouakchott or Ksar
72%
Draw or Ksar
61%

Winning margin

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
17%
Ksar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
71%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
35%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
13%
Ksar 1+ goals
66%
Ksar 2+ goals
30%
Ksar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
55%
Ksar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Nouakchott at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Ksar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Nouakchott attack 1.14 + Ksar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ksar attack 0.86 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inter Nouakchott scores more
39%
level
28%
Ksar scores more
32%

Inter Nouakchott at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Inter Nouakchott will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Nouakchott vs Ksar

Inter Nouakchott beat Ksar 3-0 in Premier League on October 31, 2025.