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Inter Nouakchott vs Kaédi — Premier League 2020

Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kaédi
Kaédi
2/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Inter Nouakchott44%
×Draw27%
Kaédi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Nouakchott
1.39
Kaédi
1.10

Inter Nouakchott creates 26% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 78 away

creates per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.14
Kaédi
0.88

allows per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.33
Kaédi
1.64

finishing

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par
Kaédi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Nouakchott ↓

Kaédi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Inter Nouakchott or draw
70%
Inter Nouakchott or Kaédi
73%
Draw or Kaédi
56%

Winning margin

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
21%
Kaédi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
75%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
40%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
16%
Kaédi 1+ goals
67%
Kaédi 2+ goals
30%
Kaédi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
59%
Kaédi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Nouakchott at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Kaédi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.64 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Nouakchott attack 1.14 + Kaédi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kaédi attack 0.88 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Inter Nouakchott scores more
44%
level
27%
Kaédi scores more
30%

Inter Nouakchott at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Inter Nouakchott will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Nouakchott vs Kaédi

Inter Nouakchott beat Kaédi 3-2 in Premier League on February 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.