Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Nouakchott vs Garde Nationale — Premier League 2020

Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
10/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Inter Nouakchott34%
×Draw29%
Garde Nationale36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Nouakchott
1.07
Garde Nationale
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 64 away

creates per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.14
Garde Nationale
0.89

allows per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.33
Garde Nationale
1.00

finishing

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par
Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Nouakchott ↓

Garde Nationale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Inter Nouakchott or draw
64%
Inter Nouakchott or Garde Nationale
71%
Draw or Garde Nationale
66%

Winning margin

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
13%
Garde Nationale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
66%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
29%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
9%
Garde Nationale 1+ goals
67%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
30%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
49%
Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Nouakchott at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Nouakchott attack 1.14 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Inter Nouakchott scores more
34%
level
29%
Garde Nationale scores more
36%

Garde Nationale at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Garde Nationale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Nouakchott 2–1 Garde Nationale

Inter Nouakchott beat Garde Nationale 2-1 in Premier League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.