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Inter Nouakchott vs Concorde — Premier League 2020

Inter Nouakchott
Inter Nouakchott
FT
1 – 4
Concorde
Concorde
4/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Inter Nouakchott35%
×Draw28%
Concorde37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Nouakchott
1.18
Concorde
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 51 away

creates per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.14
Concorde
1.08

allows per match

Inter Nouakchott
1.33
Concorde
1.22

finishing

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par
Concorde+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Nouakchott ↓

Concorde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Nouakchott or draw
63%
Inter Nouakchott or Concorde
72%
Draw or Concorde
65%

Winning margin

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+
15%
Concorde wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals
69%
Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals
33%
Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals
12%
Concorde 1+ goals
70%
Concorde 2+ goals
34%
Concorde 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)
49%
Concorde (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Nouakchott at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Concorde away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Nouakchott attack 1.14 + Concorde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Concorde attack 1.08 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Inter Nouakchott scores more
35%
level
28%
Concorde scores more
37%

Concorde at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Concorde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Nouakchott vs Concorde

Concorde beat Inter Nouakchott 4-1 in Premier League on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.