Inter Nouakchott 2–2 AC Douane: Result & Stats

Inter Nouakchott

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AC Douane

4/5/2025

Premier League · Round 24Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Inter Nouakchott29%

×Draw27%

AC Douane43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter NouakchottExpected goals in this matchAC Douane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.35

Inter Nouakchott

1.06

AC Douane

1.35

AC Douane creates 27% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 66 away

1.14

creates per match

1.36

1.33

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Inter Nouakchott

1.14

AC Douane

1.36

allows per match

Inter Nouakchott

1.33

AC Douane

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Nouakchott+0.00on par

AC Douane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Nouakchott ↓

AC Douane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Inter Nouakchott or draw

57%

Inter Nouakchott or AC Douane

73%

Draw or AC Douane

71%

Winning margin

Inter Nouakchott wins by 2+

11%

AC Douane wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Inter Nouakchott 1+ goals

65%

Inter Nouakchott 2+ goals

29%

Inter Nouakchott 3+ goals

9%

AC Douane 1+ goals

74%

AC Douane 2+ goals

39%

AC Douane 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Inter Nouakchott (draw refunded)

40%

AC Douane (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Nouakchott at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

AC Douane away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Nouakchott attack 1.14 + AC Douane defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

AC Douane attack 1.36 + Inter Nouakchott defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Inter Nouakchott scores more

29%

level

27%

AC Douane scores more

43%

AC Douane at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AC Douane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff