Inter Moengotapoe 2–1 Voorwaarts: Result & Stats

Inter Moengotapoe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Voorwaarts

5/10/2026

Eerste Divisie · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Inter Moengotapoe45%

×Draw22%

Voorwaarts33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MoengotapoeExpected goals in this matchVoorwaarts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.65

Inter Moengotapoe

1.93

Voorwaarts

1.65

Inter Moengotapoe creates 17% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

2.69

creates per match

1.95

1.34

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Inter Moengotapoe

2.69

Voorwaarts

1.95

allows per match

Inter Moengotapoe

1.34

Voorwaarts

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par

Voorwaarts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Moengotapoe ↓

Voorwaarts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Inter Moengotapoe or draw

67%

Inter Moengotapoe or Voorwaarts

78%

Draw or Voorwaarts

55%

Winning margin

Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+

25%

Voorwaarts wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals

85%

Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals

57%

Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals

30%

Voorwaarts 1+ goals

81%

Voorwaarts 2+ goals

49%

Voorwaarts 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)

57%

Voorwaarts (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Moengotapoe at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Voorwaarts away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.69 + Voorwaarts defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.93

Voorwaarts attack 1.95 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inter Moengotapoe scores more

45%

level

22%

Voorwaarts scores more

33%

Inter Moengotapoe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Moengotapoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff