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Inter Moengotapoe vs SNL — Eerste Divisie 2019

Inter Moengotapoe
Inter Moengotapoe
FT
1 – 1
SNL
SNL
5/14/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 16Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Inter Moengotapoe67%
×Draw17%
SNL16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Moengotapoe
2.72
SNL
1.27

Inter Moengotapoe creates 114% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 29 away

creates per match

Inter Moengotapoe
2.69
SNL
1.21

allows per match

Inter Moengotapoe
1.34
SNL
2.76

finishing

Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par
SNL+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Moengotapoe ↓

SNL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Inter Moengotapoe or draw
84%
Inter Moengotapoe or SNL
83%
Draw or SNL
33%

Winning margin

Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+
46%
SNL wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals
93%
Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals
75%
Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals
50%
SNL 1+ goals
72%
SNL 2+ goals
36%
SNL 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)
81%
SNL (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Moengotapoe at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

SNL away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.69 + SNL defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.72

SNL attack 1.21 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Inter Moengotapoe scores more
67%
level
17%
SNL scores more
16%

Inter Moengotapoe at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Inter Moengotapoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Moengotapoe vs SNL

Inter Moengotapoe and SNL drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.