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Inter Moengotapoe vs Santos — Eerste Divisie 2019

Inter Moengotapoe
Inter Moengotapoe
FT
9 – 0
Santos
Santos
3/5/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 2Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Inter Moengotapoe77%
×Draw13%
Santos10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Moengotapoe
3.21
Santos
1.14

Inter Moengotapoe creates 182% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 27 away

creates per match

Inter Moengotapoe
2.69
Santos
0.93

allows per match

Inter Moengotapoe
1.34
Santos
3.74

finishing

Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Moengotapoe ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Inter Moengotapoe or draw
90%
Inter Moengotapoe or Santos
87%
Draw or Santos
23%

Winning margin

Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+
58%
Santos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals
96%
Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals
82%
Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals
60%
Santos 1+ goals
68%
Santos 2+ goals
32%
Santos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)
88%
Santos (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Moengotapoe at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.69 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 3.21

Santos attack 0.93 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Inter Moengotapoe scores more
77%
level
13%
Santos scores more
10%

Inter Moengotapoe at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Inter Moengotapoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Moengotapoe vs Santos

Inter Moengotapoe beat Santos 9-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.