Inter Moengotapoe 2–2 Robin Hood: Result & Stats

Inter Moengotapoe

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Robin Hood

3/31/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 5Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Inter Moengotapoe32%

×Draw21%

Robin Hood47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MoengotapoeExpected goals in this matchRobin Hood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.19

Inter Moengotapoe

1.79

Robin Hood

2.19

Robin Hood creates 22% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 61 away

2.69

creates per match

3.05

1.34

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Inter Moengotapoe

2.69

Robin Hood

3.05

allows per match

Inter Moengotapoe

1.34

Robin Hood

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par

Robin Hood+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Moengotapoe ↓

Robin Hood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Inter Moengotapoe or draw

53%

Inter Moengotapoe or Robin Hood

79%

Draw or Robin Hood

68%

Winning margin

Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+

16%

Robin Hood wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals

83%

Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals

53%

Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals

26%

Robin Hood 1+ goals

89%

Robin Hood 2+ goals

64%

Robin Hood 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)

41%

Robin Hood (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Moengotapoe at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Robin Hood away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.69 + Robin Hood defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Robin Hood attack 3.05 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Inter Moengotapoe scores more

32%

level

21%

Robin Hood scores more

47%

Robin Hood at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff