Inter Moengotapoe 2–1 Leo Victor: Result & Stats

Inter Moengotapoe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leo Victor

2/15/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 3Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Inter Moengotapoe51%

×Draw21%

Leo Victor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MoengotapoeExpected goals in this matchLeo Victor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.56

Inter Moengotapoe

2.15

Leo Victor

1.56

Inter Moengotapoe creates 38% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

2.69

creates per match

1.79

1.34

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Inter Moengotapoe

2.69

Leo Victor

1.79

allows per match

Inter Moengotapoe

1.34

Leo Victor

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par

Leo Victor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Moengotapoe ↓

Leo Victor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Inter Moengotapoe or draw

72%

Inter Moengotapoe or Leo Victor

79%

Draw or Leo Victor

49%

Winning margin

Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+

30%

Leo Victor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals

88%

Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals

63%

Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals

36%

Leo Victor 1+ goals

79%

Leo Victor 2+ goals

46%

Leo Victor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)

64%

Leo Victor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Moengotapoe at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Leo Victor away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.69 + Leo Victor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.15

Leo Victor attack 1.79 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Inter Moengotapoe scores more

51%

level

21%

Leo Victor scores more

28%

Inter Moengotapoe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Inter Moengotapoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff