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Inter Moengotapoe vs Flora Tallinn — Eerste Divisie 2019

Inter Moengotapoe
Inter Moengotapoe
FT
4 – 1
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
2/12/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 5Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Inter Moengotapoe62%
×Draw19%
Flora Tallinn19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Moengotapoe
2.47
Flora Tallinn
1.33

Inter Moengotapoe creates 86% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 12 away

creates per match

Inter Moengotapoe
2.69
Flora Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Inter Moengotapoe
1.34
Flora Tallinn
2.25

finishing

Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Moengotapoe ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Inter Moengotapoe or draw
81%
Inter Moengotapoe or Flora Tallinn
81%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
38%

Winning margin

Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+
40%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals
91%
Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals
70%
Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals
44%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
74%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
38%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)
76%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Moengotapoe at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.69 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.47

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Inter Moengotapoe scores more
62%
level
19%
Flora Tallinn scores more
19%

Inter Moengotapoe at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Inter Moengotapoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Inter Moengotapoe 4–1 Flora Tallinn

Inter Moengotapoe beat Flora Tallinn 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.