Inter Miami 2–0 Real Salt Lake: Result & Stats

Inter Miami

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Salt Lake

2/22/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 1Chase Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Inter Miami57%

×Draw21%

Real Salt Lake22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MiamiExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.28

Inter Miami

2.16

Real Salt Lake

1.28

Inter Miami creates 69% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

2.34

creates per match

1.20

1.36

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Inter Miami

2.34

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

Inter Miami

1.36

Real Salt Lake

1.98

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Inter Miami+0.41scores more

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Inter Miami or draw

78%

Inter Miami or Real Salt Lake

79%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

43%

Winning margin

Inter Miami wins by 2+

35%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Inter Miami 1+ goals

88%

Inter Miami 2+ goals

63%

Inter Miami 3+ goals

36%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

72%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

37%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami (draw refunded)

72%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.36 · 16 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami attack 2.34 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.16

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + Inter Miami defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Inter Miami scores more

57%

level

21%

Real Salt Lake scores more

22%

Inter Miami at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter Miami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Inter Miami 2–0 Real Salt Lake

Inter Miami beat Real Salt Lake 2-0 in Major League Soccer on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Inter Miami vs Real Salt Lake — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Major League Soccer: Inter Miami 2–0 Real Salt Lake