Inter Miami vs Los Angeles Galaxy — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 16+ matches
Inter Miami52%
Los Angeles Galaxy26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Inter Miami creates 45% more chances
Season form · 16 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Inter Miami ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Inter Miami at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.36 · 16 matches
Los Angeles Galaxy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Inter Miami attack 2.34 + Los Angeles Galaxy defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.99
Los Angeles Galaxy attack 1.38 + Inter Miami defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Inter Miami at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Inter Miami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FCLos Angeles Galaxy
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Colorado Rapids
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SCInter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
DC United
Columbus Crew
CF Montreal
Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Inter Miami host Los Angeles Galaxy on Sunday, 18 April 2021 at 19:00. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Major League Soccer: Inter Miami 2–3 Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles Galaxy beat Inter Miami 3-2 in Major League Soccer on April 18, 2021.
The match was played at DRV PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.