Inter Miami 1–0 DC United: Result & Stats

Inter Miami

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

DC United

5/18/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 20Chase Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Inter Miami48%

×Draw24%

DC United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MiamiExpected goals in this matchDC United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.28

Inter Miami

1.72

DC United

1.28

Inter Miami creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

2.34

creates per match

1.20

1.36

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Inter Miami

2.34

DC United

1.20

allows per match

Inter Miami

1.36

DC United

1.10

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Inter Miami+0.41scores more

DC United+0.06on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami ↓

DC United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Inter Miami or draw

71%

Inter Miami or DC United

76%

Draw or DC United

52%

Winning margin

Inter Miami wins by 2+

25%

DC United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Inter Miami 1+ goals

82%

Inter Miami 2+ goals

51%

Inter Miami 3+ goals

25%

DC United 1+ goals

72%

DC United 2+ goals

37%

DC United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami (draw refunded)

63%

DC United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.36 · 16 matches

DC United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami attack 2.34 + DC United defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

DC United attack 1.20 + Inter Miami defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Inter Miami scores more

48%

level

24%

DC United scores more

29%

Inter Miami at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter Miami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff