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Inter Miami II vs Union Omaha — USL League One 2019

Inter Miami II
Inter Miami II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Union Omaha
Union Omaha
10/1/2020USL League OneUSL League One · Round 7Inter Miami CF Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Inter Miami II34%
×Draw25%
Union Omaha41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Miami II
1.38
Union Omaha
1.54

Union Omaha creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 87 away

creates per match

Inter Miami II
1.59
Union Omaha
1.34

allows per match

Inter Miami II
1.73
Union Omaha
1.17

finishing

Inter Miami II+0.00on par
Union Omaha+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami II ↓

Union Omaha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Inter Miami II or draw
59%
Inter Miami II or Union Omaha
75%
Draw or Union Omaha
66%

Winning margin

Inter Miami II wins by 2+
15%
Union Omaha wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Inter Miami II 1+ goals
75%
Inter Miami II 2+ goals
40%
Inter Miami II 3+ goals
16%
Union Omaha 1+ goals
79%
Union Omaha 2+ goals
45%
Union Omaha 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)
45%
Union Omaha (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami II at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Union Omaha away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami II attack 1.59 + Union Omaha defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Union Omaha attack 1.34 + Inter Miami II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inter Miami II scores more
34%
level
25%
Union Omaha scores more
41%

Union Omaha at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Omaha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Miami II vs Union Omaha

Union Omaha beat Inter Miami II 3-2 in USL League One on October 1, 2020.

The match was played at Inter Miami CF Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.