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Inter Miami II vs Tucson — USL League One 2019

Inter Miami II
Inter Miami II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Tucson
Tucson
8/22/2021USL League OneUSL League One · Round 11DRV PNK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Inter Miami II40%
×Draw24%
Tucson36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Miami II
1.60
Tucson
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 52 away

creates per match

Inter Miami II
1.59
Tucson
1.27

allows per match

Inter Miami II
1.73
Tucson
1.60

finishing

Inter Miami II+0.00on par
Tucson+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami II ↓

Tucson →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Inter Miami II or draw
64%
Inter Miami II or Tucson
76%
Draw or Tucson
60%

Winning margin

Inter Miami II wins by 2+
20%
Tucson wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Inter Miami II 1+ goals
80%
Inter Miami II 2+ goals
47%
Inter Miami II 3+ goals
22%
Tucson 1+ goals
78%
Tucson 2+ goals
44%
Tucson 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)
53%
Tucson (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami II at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Tucson away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami II attack 1.59 + Tucson defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tucson attack 1.27 + Inter Miami II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Inter Miami II scores more
40%
level
24%
Tucson scores more
36%

Inter Miami II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inter Miami II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Miami II vs Tucson

Tucson beat Inter Miami II 4-0 in USL League One on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at DRV PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.