Inter Miami II 2–1 Toronto II: Result & Stats

Inter Miami II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Toronto II

6/26/2021

USL League One · Round 6DRV PNK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Inter Miami II41%

×Draw24%

Toronto II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Miami IIExpected goals in this matchToronto II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.46

Inter Miami II

1.60

Toronto II

1.46

Inter Miami II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

1.59

creates per match

1.18

1.73

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Inter Miami II

1.59

Toronto II

1.18

allows per match

Inter Miami II

1.73

Toronto II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Toronto II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami II ↓

Toronto II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Inter Miami II or draw

65%

Inter Miami II or Toronto II

76%

Draw or Toronto II

59%

Winning margin

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

21%

Toronto II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

80%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

47%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

22%

Toronto II 1+ goals

77%

Toronto II 2+ goals

43%

Toronto II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

54%

Toronto II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami II at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Toronto II away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami II attack 1.59 + Toronto II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Toronto II attack 1.18 + Inter Miami II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inter Miami II scores more

41%

level

24%

Toronto II scores more

35%

Inter Miami II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inter Miami II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff