Inter Miami II 2–0 Greenville Triumph

Inter Miami II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Greenville Triumph

8/15/2021

USL League One · Round 10DRV PNK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Inter Miami II36%

×Draw25%

Greenville Triumph39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Miami IIExpected goals in this matchGreenville Triumph

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.51

Inter Miami II

1.45

Greenville Triumph

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 104 away

1.59

creates per match

1.29

1.73

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Inter Miami II

1.59

Greenville Triumph

1.29

allows per match

Inter Miami II

1.73

Greenville Triumph

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Greenville Triumph+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami II ↓

Greenville Triumph →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Inter Miami II or draw

61%

Inter Miami II or Greenville Triumph

75%

Draw or Greenville Triumph

64%

Winning margin

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

17%

Greenville Triumph wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

77%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

42%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

18%

Greenville Triumph 1+ goals

78%

Greenville Triumph 2+ goals

44%

Greenville Triumph 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

48%

Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami II at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Greenville Triumph away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami II attack 1.59 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Greenville Triumph attack 1.29 + Inter Miami II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inter Miami II scores more

36%

level

25%

Greenville Triumph scores more

39%

Greenville Triumph at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Greenville Triumph will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff