Inter Manacor 1–0 Mercadal: Result & Stats

Inter Manacor

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mercadal

11/26/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Manacor30%

×Draw25%

Mercadal45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ManacorExpected goals in this matchMercadal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.56

Inter Manacor

1.23

Mercadal

1.56

Mercadal creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 86 away

1.00

creates per match

0.84

2.28

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Inter Manacor

1.00

Mercadal

0.84

allows per match

Inter Manacor

2.28

Mercadal

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Manacor ↓

Mercadal →

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Inter Manacor or draw

55%

Inter Manacor or Mercadal

75%

Draw or Mercadal

70%

Winning margin

Inter Manacor wins by 2+

13%

Mercadal wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Inter Manacor 1+ goals

71%

Inter Manacor 2+ goals

35%

Inter Manacor 3+ goals

13%

Mercadal 1+ goals

79%

Mercadal 2+ goals

46%

Mercadal 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Inter Manacor (draw refunded)

40%

Mercadal (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Manacor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Manacor attack 1.00 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Inter Manacor defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inter Manacor scores more

30%

level

25%

Mercadal scores more

45%

Mercadal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff